Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.014788 0.016749 0.018876 0.021356 0.024169 0.027261 0.030920
2025-07-06 0.011163 0.013732 0.016760 0.020593 0.025324 0.030978 0.038261
2025-07-13 0.009778 0.012727 0.016403 0.021330 0.027773 0.035930 0.047073
2025-07-20 0.008731 0.011901 0.016039 0.021850 0.029819 0.040398 0.055564
2025-07-27 0.007983 0.011326 0.015868 0.022507 0.031999 0.045130 0.064769
2025-08-03 0.007133 0.010485 0.015206 0.022359 0.032969 0.048198 0.071852
2025-08-10 0.006470 0.009824 0.014701 0.022340 0.034061 0.051461 0.079440
2025-08-17 0.005815 0.009095 0.014011 0.021947 0.034509 0.053749 0.085693
2025-08-24 0.005410 0.008703 0.013778 0.022209 0.035951 0.057629 0.094728
2025-08-31 0.004966 0.008200 0.013319 0.022051 0.036685 0.060414 0.102201
2025-09-07 0.004712 0.007979 0.013280 0.022560 0.038528 0.065118 0.113245
2025-09-14 0.004251 0.007369 0.012548 0.021833 0.038210 0.066166 0.118077
2025-09-21 0.003912 0.006943 0.012099 0.021568 0.038693 0.068667 0.125792
2025-09-28 0.003530 0.006407 0.011415 0.020830 0.038272 0.069548 0.130670
2025-10-05 0.003416 0.006343 0.011552 0.021574 0.040590 0.075520 0.145511
2025-10-12 0.003280 0.006221 0.011573 0.022100 0.042539 0.080963 0.159830
2025-10-19 0.003172 0.006144 0.011666 0.022765 0.044802 0.087171 0.176196
2025-10-26 0.002968 0.005865 0.011354 0.022615 0.045452 0.090311 0.186688
2025-11-02 0.002798 0.005636 0.011120 0.022596 0.046356 0.094009 0.198641
2025-11-09 0.002600 0.005334 0.010717 0.022199 0.046448 0.096065 0.207315
2025-11-16 0.002489 0.005201 0.010639 0.022463 0.047932 0.101094 0.222803
2025-11-23 0.002343 0.004983 0.010372 0.022304 0.048498 0.104236 0.234426
2025-11-30 0.002273 0.004920 0.010419 0.022818 0.050562 0.110739 0.254156